What Are My Odds? (updated June 9th 2015)
This will be one of the most comprehensive pieces on "numbers game" on the Internet.
Hopefully it will be a "once and for all" post where we don't have to visit this again, or you can just refer new guys here for the answers to all their questions.
There's a bunch of stuff I need you to realize before we tackle this subject and start spitting out numbers.