What Are My Odds?
(updated June 9th 2015)
This will be one of the most comprehensive pieces on "numbers game" on the Internet.
Hopefully it will be a "once and for all" post where we don't have to visit this again, or you can just refer new guys here for the answers to all their questions.
There's a bunch of stuff I need you to realize before we tackle this subject and start spitting out numbers.
First off-
In my opinion (and I've said this for 5 years)- the guys that have an overwhelming desire to discuss and debate these types of statistically analyses - are usually not getting much action in real life.
I would have been giddy to study this in 2005-2006 - the same period where I wasn't sleeping with too many girls.
Hooking up with a lot of girls, let alone - a lot of hot, POPULAR girls is not a "game" for geeks that make excel spreadsheets and graphs of this kind of stuff.
Discussing this kind of stuff, at best, is the equivalent to "fantasy football".
Do you understand what I mean?
Thinking about the subject in-depth for more than 36 hours is not super cool to me or productive for you...
(I much rather talk about my dick or something like that)
I'm only getting into it because there's a few points worth highlighting and I've been asked for the past 3.5 months to give some perspective on it.
In the period where I was taking girls back to my apartment 2 or 3 days/nights a week - I wasn't on ANY pick up forums, analyzing ANYTHING or playing fantasy football.
I only started GoodLookingLoser.com and resumed playing fantasy football again in Late 2011 because Scotty talked me into it.
This "Numbers Game" discussion covers my 5+ years of personal experience in a host of venues and environments with PUA, 'basic guy' and more aggressive approaches with the gameplan of either getting a girl's number or taking her to some nearby location to have sex.
It covers my experience in college as a transfer student when I seemingly needed to approach random girls. It also covers the period when I wasn't getting girls or when I was leaving a lot of pussy on the table.
It also covers observations I've made from seeing the results (or lack of results) of friends that fit into one of these categories- PUA geek guys, "day game" guys, normal guys, club/party guys, good looking guys and aggressive Legit Dirtbags such as Scotty.
I reserve the right to modify it if I think of something or need to add/retract something.
I'm only ONE person, and although I've picked up girls weighing anywhere from 170lbs to 242lbs - I don't claim to have ALL the answers.
There are SO MANY factors in play that not offering the disclaimer "results will vary," would be irresponsible.
What are the Factors in Play?
(well since you asked...)
- The BIGGEST factor is HER sexual availability, if this term is new to you - read about it before you continue.
- How good looking you are in comparison to her.
- How good looking she is in comparison to you.
- How good you look at the time.
- How good she looks at the time.
- Did you make eye contact with her and smile? (warmer approach, not part of this analysis)
- How cool you are.
- How cool she thinks you are.
- How cool she feels in comparison to you.
(are you both part of the "In Crowd" or are you/her a total loser?) - How cool you are dressed.
- If you are perceived as boyfriend material, a good guy, or a scumbag.
- Whether you are being aggressive or not-so-aggressive.
- If her judgmental friends are there.
- What she thinks of your friends.
- Your social status.
- Her social status.
- Where you meet her.
(how acceptable it is to talk/sleep with a random stranger in your city/country/Indian reservation) - Are you taking her number or trying to take her somewhere for sex?
- Are you actually going to call her?
- Your Swag Factor and Social Skills.
- Your Killer Instinct. (sexual freedom vs. sexual anxiety, sexual experience)
- Other lesser significant assumptions and lifestyle characteristics (do you smoke/does she, do you use drugs/does she, etc.)
This list could literally continue for another 10000 words.
- A bigger list of these factors/characteristics can be read in "Swag & Social Status Factors".
Somewhere on the list, stuffed in the 'lesser significant' category is how good your "game" is.
since everyone's definition of "game" is different- there's no point in ranking it.
I consider "game" to be how dominant, masculine and assertive a guy is. His KILLER INSTINCT. That is a fairly significant factor.
But others consider it to be "how smooth" a guy is, how much the girl laughs, how funny you are, how quickly you can think of a comeback/joke, how interesting you are. Largely meaningless factors when it comes to how attractive you are to her.
My point is-
The numbers and circumstances I'm about to give you ARE NOT air tight.
They are estimations.
The estimations are based strictly on-
asking a girl for her number and then trying to sleep with her sometime thereafter.
A more aggressive style or gameplan for trying to Get Laid on the spot (without exchanging numbers) is much less predictable, has a lower overall success rate but can be done much more efficiently - and will result in more overall success.
Like I said, legit "players" that REALLY tag a lot of girls aren't usually doing the "number-close, text-game, phone-game" thing, they are trying to sleep with the girl THAT NIGHT.
Relying on or celebrating getting a phone number is simply yet another pick up artist manifestation that you should eventually be laughing at.
Moreover, on the West Coast, where girls are quite friendly and fake - they will give guys they aren't interested in their number and even become their text buddy if the guy is harmless and willing to give them compliments or entertain them.
In my opinion- that hardly counts as a "success" and I will adjust the percentages accordingly.
The Odds Are In Your Favor?
Some of our very first articles included numbers and statistics, these posts actually got GoodLookingLoser.com its first real buzz-
- "If I Approached 100 Chicks, Would I Get Some Pussy?"
- "If I Approached 100 Chicks, Would I Get Some Pussy? (A Closer Look)"
I said in those posts that-
"The Odds Are In Your Favor."
By that I mean-
If you approached 100 girls...
- Would it be more likely that you'd get ONE of them?
- Or would it be more likely that ALL 100 would reject you?
For most guys, regardless of how anxious they are about the whole thing- they would be more likely to get action from at least ONE girl than be rejected by ALL 100.
So in that sense-
The Odds Are In Your Favor.
You have UNLIMITED TRIES and eventually you'll score.
Categories of Guys & Success Rates "Levels Theory"
There's two things that we need to generalize about to come up with some meaningful numbers-
- Looks Comparison (your hotness/coolness vs. her hotness)
- Experience Level (with hitting on girls)
Looks Comparison
This is how it sounds.
How does YOUR SEX APPEAL (how attractive, masculine and cool you appear) compare to HER SEX APPEAL?
It is virtually impossible to pick up women that are more than +3 "levels" above you in sex appeal.
Any ugly guys that you see chilling with super hot girls, the more likely explanation is-
- they aren't fucking each other (friend, colleague, servant, gay, etc.)
- she was willing to accept a committed relationship since she prioritizes other factors (money, status, resources, etc.)
- he met her in a social group rather than "cold approaching" her on the streets of Hollywood outside her model agency
Like I said, it is virtually impossible to score women that are much greater than "3 levels" (very significant) via straight cold approach.
It does happen however but it's extremely rare.
Picking up chicks (and sleeping with them) that are more than "4 levels" greater in sex appeal is next to impossible.
The "Looks Comparison" will always be the main factor in picking up random girls that are sexually available.
And that is why I tell guys to do everything they can to BE ABOVE-AVERAGE.
If you can get to a "7" in sex appeal, you have a shot at nearly all women.
Being a "7" is enough to meet the "Looks Threshold" of 90+% of women - at that point, the vast majority of the time, you won't be getting rejected for your looks, but rather her lack of sexual availability.
Experience Level
How comfortable you are with approaching women will certainly be a factor.
We'll classify these levels as-
- Beginner - hit on less than 500 girls
- Intermediate - hit on less than 1000 girls & slept with less than 10 of those girls
- Advanced - hit on over 1000 girls & slept with over 15 girls via cold approach
- Legit Dirtbag - slept with over 45 girls via cold approach
The more experience you have, the less anxiety you will have and the more likely you will be successful.
Numbers, Numbers, Numbers
Sorry I made you read 1440 words before I got to the point.
The preceding information was important because it gives perspective and clears up most of the obvious questions.
This is how it is likely to go if you are taking the basic approach of getting a girl's phone number and trying to sleep with them at a later date.
Again, these numbers are entirely hypothetical.
It is not always obvious if the girl is REJECTING YOU for your looks or she isn't sexually available.
Since phone numbers don't reflect success I'm only counting LEGIT NUMBERS, where the girl responds to the text and appears interested.
Success rates can vary based on any of the social, cultural or environmental circumstances I listed above.
These estimates pertain to cold approaches where there is NO EYE CONTACT or invite made.
Allow a [+/-] 2% for margin of error and natural variance over 100 approaches.
EQUAL SEX APPEAL
If the woman has EQUAL Sex Appeal (LooksMatch)
Beginners
- 8 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (8% total, 1 out of 12.5)
* this number can be increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (2.64% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (1.056% total)
Beginners will fuck ~1 of 100 girls that are EQUAL to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Intermediate
- 14 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (14%, 1 out of 7.14)
- 1 of 3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (4.66% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (2.053% total)
Intermediates will fuck ~2 of 100 girls that are EQUAL sex appeal to you in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 19 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (19%, 1 out of 5.26)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (7.6% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (3.8% total)
Advanced guys will fuck ~3 to 4 of 100 girls that are EQUAL sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 20 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (20%, 1 out of 5)
- 1 of 2.3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (8.69% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (6.52% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck ~6 to 7 of 100 girls that are EQUAL sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
MORE SEX APPEAL
If the woman has 1 LEVEL MORE Sex Appeal (1+)
Beginners
- 2.86 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (2.86% total, 1 out of 35)
* this number can be somewhat increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (0.572% total)
* beginners usually give up on girls that don't meet up with them right away - you will sleep with 1 in 3.3 (33%) of these girls that meet up with you (0.1906% total)
Over 100 approaches, beginners (less than 500 approaches) will not usually bang any girls that are +1 in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Beginners that randomly get laid within their first 500 approaches usually do so via some sort of warm approach (eye contact, smile, wink, etc.). It is possible and that would be the more efficient route to take rather than indiscriminately hitting on random women that have higher social status.
Intermediate
- 9 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (9%, 1 out of 11.11)
- 1 of 3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (3% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (1.31% total)
Intermediates will fuck ~1 of 100 girls that are +1 in Sex Appeal by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 15 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (15%, 1 out of 6.66)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (6% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (3% total)
Advanced guys will fuck ~3 of 100 girls that are +1 in Sex Appeal by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 18 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (18%, 1 out of 5.55)
- 1 of 2.25 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (7.99% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (5.99% total)
Legit Dirtbags guys will fuck ~5 to 6 of 100 girls that are +1 in Sex Appeal by taking phone numbers.
If the woman has 2 LEVELS MORE Sex Appeal (2+)
Beginners
- 1.66 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (1.66% total, 1 out of 60)
* this number can be slightly increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (0.33% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (.13% total)
Beginners rarely sleep with any +2 girls by taking phone numbers within their first couple hundred approaches.
Intermediate
- 2.5 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (2.5%, 1 out of 40)
- 1 of 3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (0.83% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (0.37% total)
Intermediates will fuck 1 (+2 girl) in 300-370 approaches by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 19 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (19%, 1 out of 5.26)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (7.6% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (3.8% total)
Advanced guys will fuck ~3 to 4 of 100 +2 girls by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 19 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (19%, 1 out of 5.26)
- 1 of 2.3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (8.26% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (6.19% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck ~6 of 100 girls that are +2 levels above them by taking phone numbers.
Guys that are "7" and "8" (above average) do bang top-shelf girls.
If the woman has 3 LEVELS MORE Sex Appeal (3+)
Beginners
- .66 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (0.66% total, 1 out of 151.5)
* this number can be slightly increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 6.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (0.10% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (.04% total)
Beginners rarely sleep with any girls +3 levels above them by taking phone numbers within their first couple hundred approaches.
Intermediate
- 1.5 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (1.5%, 1 out of 66.6)
- 1 of 3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (0.49% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 girls (40%) that meet up with you (0.198% total)
Intermediates will fuck 1 girl that is +3 levels above them over 500 approaches by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 12 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (12%, 1 out of 8.33)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (3.33% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 girls (40%) of these girls that meet up with you. (1.333% total)
Advanced guys will fuck 1 of 100 girls that are +3 levels above them by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 15 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (15%, 1 out of 6.66)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (2.66% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (1.98% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck 1 or 2 of 100 girls that are +3 levels above them by taking phone numbers.
An important note here is that Advanced guys and Legit Dirtbags are way more assertive in asking for phone numbers.
They tend to ask EVERY girl that appears even slightly interested in them for her phone number.
Over 100 approaches - both groups can hope to fuck 1 or 2 girls.
It's also important to note - most guys don't approach +3 girls. It generally takes 7 to 10 months to rack up 100 +3 approaches.
If the woman has 4 LEVELS MORE Sex Appeal (4+)
It is rare for any level guy to sleep with a girl that +4 levels above him from trying to take her number on a cold approach.
In the situations where it happens- it will usually take 3+ weeks because the +4 girl is almost always looking for a boyfriend and her 'looks threshold' is lower than if she were sexually available and DTF.
LESS SEX APPEAL
If the woman has LESS Sex Appeal (-1)
Beginners
- 14 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (14% total, 1 out of 7.14)
* this number can be increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (2.8% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (1.142% total)
Beginners will fuck ~1 of 100 girls that are -1 to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Intermediate
- 18 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (18%, 1 out of 5.55)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (7.2% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (3.168% total)
Intermediates will fuck ~3 of 100 girls that are -1 in sex appeal to them by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 23 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (23%, 1 out of 4.34)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (9.2% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (4.6% total)
Advanced guys will fuck ~4 to 5 of 100 girls that are -1 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 25 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (25%, 1 out of 4)
- 1 of 2.3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (10.86% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (8.15% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck ~8 of 100 girls that are - 1 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
If the woman has LESS Sex Appeal (-2)
Beginners
- 16 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (16% total, 1 out of 6.25)
* this number can be increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (2.5% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (1% total)
Beginners will fuck ~1 of 100 girls that are -2 to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Intermediate
- 20 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (20%, 1 out of 5)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (8% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (3.52% total)
Intermediates will fuck ~3 or 4 of 100 girls that are -2 in sex appeal to them by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 25 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (25%, 1 out of 4)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (10% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (5% total)
Advanced guys will fuck 5 of 100 girls that are -2 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Legit Dirtbag
- 28 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (28%, 1 out of 3.57)
- 1 of 2.3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (12.17% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (9.13% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck ~9 of 100 girls that are - 2 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Worthwhile Fact
This is honestly where the BEST OF THE BEST usually pile up their big numbers from.
Most guys that have nailed 50+ girls from cold approach will nail -2 girls most often.
Don't let the -2 give the wrong impression. The girls can still be quite pretty.
The BEST OF THE BEST guys are "9" or "10" themselves and sleep with girls that are quite attractive but not true top-shelf or super popular babes.
Although I've slept with girls that are UNDENIABLY 9s and 10s via cold approach, most of the girls I've been with via cold approach would be rated 7s or 8s by most humans.
My videos generally reflect this, although some of the above-average looking girls are legit "9s" or "10s" when they dress up to go out for the night. Accessorizing can do a lot for girls.
The majority of the super hot girls I've slept with are via warm approach, club scene, social/work circle, or something else.
If the woman has LESS Sex Appeal (-3)
Beginners
- 17 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (17% total, 1 out of 5.88)
* this number can be increased by asking EVERY GIRL you speak to for her number - something that beginners don't do. - 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (2.32% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.5 (40%) of these girls that meet up with you (.92% total)
Beginners will fuck ~1 of 100 girls that are -3 to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
Intermediate
- 22 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (22%, 1 out of 4.54)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (8.8% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2.25 girls (44%) that meet up with you (3.87% total)
Intermediates will fuck ~3 or 4 of 100 girls that are -3 in sex appeal to them by taking phone numbers.
Advanced
- 27 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (27%, 1 out of 3.7)
- 1 of 2.5 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (10.8% total)
- you will sleep with 1 in 2 girls (50%) of these girls that meet up with you. (5.4% total)
Advanced guys will fuck 5 or 6 of 100 girls that are -3 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
I criticize the "PUA Authorities" a lot.
The ones that are "legit" and average looking usually fall into this category. They nail about 5 girls for every 100, and the girls are significantly less attractive than they are.
Legit Dirtbag
- 30 legit phone numbers per every 100 approaches (30%, 1 out of 3.33)
- 1 of 2.3 of those phone numbers will meet up with you (13.04% total)
- you will sleep with 1.5 in 2 girls (75%) of these girls that meet up with you. (9.78% total)
Legit Dirtbags will fuck 9 or 10 of 100 girls that are - 3 in sex appeal to them in sex appeal by taking phone numbers.
I only have one example of a Legit Dirtbag that fucks -3 girls.
Lets call him 'Matty'.
Unlike most legit dirtbags that eventually set their sights on QUALITY (relative to their appearance), my Legit Dirtbag friend will fuck girls that are -3 and -4 below him in sex appeal.
He's only a 5 on a good day, so you can imagine what the girls are like.
He admits to this, so that makes him cool.
If the woman has LESS Sex Appeal (-4)
Like the +4 category, this one isn't worth discussing that much.
Most guys that are "9s" or "10s" don't have interest in cold approaching girls that are significantly below them in sex appeal.
I suppose it's a shame though.
If you are a good looking, inexperienced guy- these girls would be pretty open to sleeping with you.
Also- girls that are -4 will do their very best to satisfy you. Most aim to please guys that they still have no chance with and are okay with it.
If you have fetishes or some sort of bizarre role play fantasies, these girls are more likely to go along with it without getting to know them.
Final Thoughts
Okay Losers - so there you have it.
I can tell you to the exact .00% how many girls you are going to sleep with.
Disappointed?
You shouldn't be.
The eventual odds are in your favor to Get Laid at least once in a while (which is more than 90% of guys) if you talk to women.
If you work your sex appeal into shape - and hit on 20-30 girls a week with 'Basic Guy' (lemme get your number) game, you'll never be without sex.
My goal is to motivate you to look decent, approach women, protect your ego and eventually you'll write in telling me-
"Chris you are amazing, everything you said was true! I got laid and there's another hotter girl trying to meet up with me!"
I know that if I can get you looking good, out of the house and make you speak to girls that a certain percentage will want to give you a phone number and eventually let you hold her feet.
I know this shit so well because I've lived it.
Although we'll always discuss 'Numbers Game', hopefully this is the LAST TIME we discuss specific quantitative percentages.
This is geek shit.
In the amount of time that it took me to write this (and put up the wonderful pictures), I could have gotten laid with a girl that is above-average looking.
You might have too.
As a final note, these percentages are rough estimates.
But I've looked them over several times and I believe they are close as it gets to reality.
Remember this applies strictly to-
"Basic Guy" Game
Cold approaching random non-celebrity females and asking them for their number as the means to try and sleep with them.
Things change when you warm approach and/or trying to hook up without taking their number.
Maybe we'll discuss that someday, but not today.
This week you walked by 28.21 girls that would have given you their number and 5.39 would have slept with you.
(I'm just bullshitting with these 2 numbers above - the point is there's girls out there that would rather chill with you rather than play on Pintrest or hang out with their usual friends and bitch about how they can't meet guys)
Instead you are reading my creepy blog.
Conclusions-
- Look good
- Talk to women
In that order.
Hopefully this was beneficial.